ANALYSIS

Ukraine in 1999

David Marples

The year proved to be a significant one for Ukraine, with a divisive presidential election, the death of a charismatic opposition leader, and the flight abroad of a former prime minister.

The major event of the year was clearly the presidential elections of 31 October, with a run-off on 14 November. In the initial election, 13 candidates ran for election but only four received more than 10% of the vote: incumbent president Kuchma (36.48%), Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko (22.24%), Socialist Party leader Oleksander Moroz (11.3%), and Progressive Socialist Natalia Vitrenko (10.98%). In a bitterly contest run-off, and with a voter turnout of 74%, Kuchma defeated Symonenko, winning 56.31% to 37.76%. Kuchma received his highest support in western and central Ukraine, while Symonenko was ahead in eastern Ukraine.

Some observers maintained that the elections did not meet democratic standards, particularly with the excessive government control over the media. The defeated Communists promised to make life difficult for the president through their strong position (and that of the Left generally) in the Ukrainian parliament.

The formerly prominent opposition party, Rukh, was officially divided in mid-February. Leader Vyacheslav Chornovil was removed for allegedly taking actions without consultation with the membership. Rukh split into two branches with the rival branch led by Yuriy Kostenko. On 25 March, Chornovil was killed in a car crash near Kyiv and a week later, former Foreign Minister Hennadiy Udovenko took over his section of the Rukh. Both Kostenko and Udovenko participated in the presidential elections but received a combined total percentage of only 3.4.

Meanwhile former Prime Minister and prominent businessman Pavlo Lazarenko was detained at JFK Airport in New York while seeking entry into the United States on an invalid visa. He has applied for asylum in the United States, while the Ukrainian Prosecutor-General issued a warrant for his arrest after the Supreme Court stripped him of parliamentary immunity in February.

Ukraine’s possible associate membership of the EU was on the agenda of the third Ukraine-EU summit, which took place on 23 July. However, little progress was made. A major problem is the continuing operation of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Earlier the same month, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder visited Kyiv and announced that his SPD-Green Coalition has postponed a decision on the financing of two new reactors at the Khmelnytsky and Rivne stations. Ukraine protested that this delay was in violation of the G-7-Ukraine Memorandum of Understanding signed in Ottawa in December 1995. In late August, the Enerhoatom state agency announced that Ukraine was likely to miss the 2000 deadline for the closure of Chernobyl (agreed to at the same meeting) because of the urgent need for electricity during the coming winter.

Ukraine has also had its membership in the Council of Europe suspended because of its poor human rights record. The Council has long demanded that Ukraine abolish the death penalty.

The country’s economy continues to struggle. On 1 May, the foreign debt totaled $12.4 billion (half of which was owed to the IMF, Russia, and the World Bank). In mid-October, it was reported that Ukraine’s GDP had shrunk by 1.7% compared to the same period in 1998; while over the same period the government had managed to repay only 5% of its $524 million pension and wage arrears. As a result, over half of Ukrainian coalmines ceased deliveries of coal on 1 October, and began a seven-day protest to demand the payment of wage arrears. The coal miners’ actions echoed those of nuclear plant workers earlier in the year. The hryvnia currency dipped to an all-time low of 5.1 to the dollar in early November, though it recovered somewhat after the confirmation of the reelection of President Kuchma.

Ukraine continues to be a magnet for illegal immigrants, many of whom come from Asian countries en route for central and Western Europe. According to the State Border Guards Committee there were about 60,000 illegal immigrants in Ukraine in July. Paradoxically, the population continues to decline at a rather alarming rate. The State Statistics Committee reported in July that it had fallen from 52.04 million at the end of 1991 to 49.98 million on 1 July 1999. The decline is a consequence of declining birth rates, a higher death rate, and a relatively high rate of infant mortality.

Copyright: Encyclopedia Britannica (Chicago)