Study explores Canada's ghost towns

A University of Alberta researcher is peering into the past to discover why hundreds of communities in rural Canada fell by the wayside, and what can be learned from their quiet demise.

Dr. Debra Davidson, a professor of environmental sociology at the University of Alberta, launched a national study three years ago to find out what factors led to lack of sustainability for Canada's estimated 10,000 'ghost towns' - communities dating back to the 1840s that simply faded away.

The project started as an exploratory venture but has grown into a full-fledged study expected to wrap up in 2008. "We had a sense of frustration in regards to where current research on the topic of sustainability is headed these days," said Davidson. Instead of focusing merely on existing communities, she felt it was important to study ones that have already collapsed.

"We tend to think of ghost towns as a historic phenomenon and that's not the case. Communities are collapsing all the time."

In Alberta for instance, while the northern half of the province flourishes thanks to the booming gas and oil industry, parts of southern Alberta tell a different story, Davidson said. "We've got dozens of smaller, older agriculture-based communities that have been seeing rapid declines in populations sitting at under 1,000 people and the average age is 50-plus. There are communities in southern Alberta I would be surprised to see survive over the next 10 years."

All of the provinces have vulnerable areas, and the number of ghost towns across Canada - some of which lasted less than 10 years - is distributed fairly evenly, she added.

To get at the cause and find ways to improve viability of rural communities, Davidson and her team have just begun to analyze Canada Post data. Because there is no existing national list of ghost towns, Davidson and her team are tracing them through past post offices. "Most communities couldn't viably exist without certain things - a school, small businesses, a post office. Of the possible measures we could have used, Canada Post keeps a complete record."

Those communities are then loaded into a Geographic Information Systems computer mapping program, and by using various spatial analysis, the researchers can gauge what factors night have played a role in eventual obsolescence: distance from the nearest railroad spur, soil conditions, weather patterns, distance to market. Other historical factors associated with political and economic change are also considered. The study will then select 10 abandoned communities from each province that represent different industries, and conduct case studies.

Interesting findings have already emerged. Between Canada's beginnings as a country in 1840 and 1911, few communities died, but between 1912 and 1918 there was a dramatic increase, peaking in 1914 when 791 communities were abandoned. In total, 3,088 communities across Canada died during this seven-year period. A similar peak was identified around 1970, which is likely attributable to increasing automation in agriculture, so fewer labourers were needed.

"These peaks indicate it's not a random process, which would also suggest that community sustainability can't just be determined by environmental factors. There are likely major political or economic events contributing to community abandonment," Davidson said.

The research is also showing that most communities died within 60 years, suggesting that "if a community can just make it beyond that third generation, it will have staying power."

The communities most at risk today appear to be those that are remote, and those with the least amount of economic diversification. "Climate change is another looming issue for rural communities," Davidson said. Increased weather variability, which affects crop harvests and forestry industries, may have economic and health impacts. Regional differences may also play a role.

"Do communities in Ontario get quicker political attention than communities in Alberta? Does NAFTA have an effect? Is there a combination of factors that determines community viability?" asked Davidson.

On a broader level, the issue goes past rural communities to Canadian society at large, she said. "Looking at the viability of rural communities serves as an indicator of the broader health of society. We can learn about the sustainability of our social system for all of us by identifying critical thresholds beyond which societal collapse is most likely to occur - rural communities are our canaries, you could say."

While many sources of information will be used to improve understanding of these critical thresholds of community collapse, nothing can replace the first-hand accounts of former residents and their descendants, Davidson added. Anyone who would like to share a bit of their own community history can send their account to Davidson at debra.davidson@afhe.ualberta.ca.

The research is supported by the National Centres of Excellence Sustainable Forest Management Network.