For a more complete listing of publications visit this Google Scholar user profile. Also see

Recent Journal Papers

Flannigan, M.D. 2015. Fire Evolution split by continent. News and Views. Nature Geoscience. Doi:10.1038/ngeo2360.

French, N., Jenkins, L. Loboda, T. Flannigan, M., Jandt, R. Bourgeau-Chavez L., and Whitley, M. 2015. Fire in Arctic tundra of Alaska: Past and future fire occurrence and significance for land management and ecology. International Journal of Wildland Fire. Accepted.

Wang, X., Thompson, D.K., Marshall, G.A., Tymstra, C., Carr, R. and Flannigan, M.D. 2015. Increasing frequency of extreme fire weather in Canada with climate change. Climatic Change. Accepted.

Kettridge, N., Turetsky, M., Sherwood, J., Thompson, D., Miller, C., Benscoter, B., Flannigan, M., Wotton, M. and Waddington, M. 2015. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift. Scientific Reports. 5:8063. doi:10.1038/srep08063.

Price, O.J., Pausas, J.G., Govender, G., Flannigan, M.D., Fernandes, P.M., Brooks, M.L. and Bird, R.B. 2014. Global patterns in fire leverage: the response of annual area burnt to previous fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire. Accepted. View online.

Lehsten, V., de Groot, W.J., Flannigan, M.D., Charles, G.T. and Balzter H. 2014. Wildfires in boreal ecoregions: evaluating the power law assumption and intra- and inter-annual variations. JGR –Biogeosciences. 119:14-23. DOI: 10.1002/2012JG002252. View online.

Parisien, M-A., Parks, S.A., Krawchuk, M.A., Little, J.M., Flannigan, M.D., Gowman, L.M., and Moritz, M.A. 2014. Comparing the influence of annually varying and temporally average controls on fire probabilities across the boreal forest of Canada. Ecological Applications. View online.

Parisien, M-A., Parks, S.A., Krawchuk, M.A., Little, J.M., Flannigan, M.D., Gowman, L.M., and Moritz, M.A. 2014.  An analysis of controls on fire activity in boreal Canada: comparing models built with different temporal resolutions. Ecological Applications. 24:1341-1356.  View online

Scotto, M. G., Gouveia, S., Carvalho, A., Monteiro, A., Martins, V., Flannigan, M., San Miguel-Ayanz, J., Miranda, A.I. and C. Borrego. 2014. Area burned in Portugal over the last decades: an extreme value analysis. International Journal of Wildland Fire.23:812-824. View online.

Wang, X., Parisien, M-A., Flannigan. M.D., Parks, S.A. Anderson, K.R. Little, J.M. and Taylor, S.W. 2014. The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada. Global Change Biology. 20:2518-2530.  doi: 10.1111/gcb.12590. View online.

Brandt, J.P., Flannigan, M.D., Maynard,D., Thompson, I. and Volney, W.J.A. 2013. An Introdcution to Canada’s boreal zone: ecosystem processes, health, sustainability and environmental issues. Environmental Reviews. 21:207-226. View online.

de Groot, W.J., Flannigan, M.D., and Cantin, A.S. 2013. Climate change impacts on future boreal fire regimes. Forest Ecology and Management. 294:35-44. View online.

de Groot, W.J., Cantin, A.S., Flannigan, M.D., Soja, A.J., Gowman, L.M. and Newbery, A. 2013. A comparison of Canadian and Russian boreal forest fire regimes. Forest Ecology and Management. 294:23-34. View online.

Flannigan, M.D. Cantin, A.S. de Groot, W.J. Wotton, M. Newbery, A. and Gowman, L.M. 2013. Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century. Forest Ecology and Management.294:64-71. View online.

Keane, R., Cary, G., Flannigan, M., Parsons, R., Davies, I., King, K., Li, C., Bradstock, R., and Gill, A.M. 2013. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling. Ecological Modelling. 266: 172-186. View online.

Price, D.T., Alfaro, R.I. Brown, K.J., Flannigan, M.D., Fleming, R.A., Hogg, E.H., Girardin, M.P., Lakusta, T., Johnston, M., McKenney, D.W., Pedlar, J., Stratton, T. Sturrock, R. Thompson, I., Trofymow, J.A. and Venier, L.A. 2013. Anticipating the consequences of climate change for Canada’s boreal forest ecosystems. Environmental Reviews. 21:322-365. View online.

Parisien, M-A., Walker, G.R., Little, J.M., Simpson, B.N., Wang,X. and Perrakis, D.B. 2012. Considerations for modeling burn probability across landscapes with steep environmental gradients: an example from the Columbia Mountains, Canada. Natural Hazards . DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0495-8.

Waddington, J.M. Thompson, D.K. Wotton, M. Quinton, W.L. Flannigan, M.D. Benscoter, B.W. Baisley, S.A. and Turetsky, M.R. 2012. Examining the utility of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System in Canadian Boreal Peatlands. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 42:47-58. View online.

Beverly, J.L. Flannigan, M.D. Stocks, B.J. and Bothwell, P. 2011. The association between Northern Hemisphere climate patterns and interannual variability in Canadian wildfire activity. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 41:2193-2201. View online.

Carvalho,  A.  Monteiro, A.  Flannigan, M.  Solman, S. Miranda, A.I.  and Borrego, C. 2011. Forest fires in a changing climate and their impacts on air quality. Atmosphere Environment.  45:5545-5553. View online.

Shabbar, A., Skinner, W. and Flannigan, M. 2011. Prediction of Seasonal Forest Fire Severity in Canada from Large-Scale Climate Patterns. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 50:785-799.

Benscoter, B.W., Thompson, D.K., Waddington, J.M., Flannigan, M.D., Wotton, B.M., de Groot, W.J. and Turetsky, M.R. 2011. Interactive effects of vegetation, soil moisture and bulk density on depth of burning of thick organic soils. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 20:418-429.

Parisien, M-A., Parks, S.A., Krawchuk, M.A., Flannigan, M.D., Bowman, L.M., and Moritz, M.A. 2011.  Scale-dependent controls on the area burned in the boreal forest of Canada, 1980-2005. Ecological Applications. 21:789-805.

Drobyshev, I., Flannigan, M., Bergeron Y., Girardin, M. and Suran, B. 2010. Variation in local weather explains differences in fire regimes within a Quebec south-eastern boreal forest landscape. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 19:1073-1082.

Wotton, B.M., Nock, C.A. and Flannigan, M.D. 2010. Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 19:253-271.

Wang, Y., Flannigan, M. and Anderson, K. 2010. Correlations between forest fires in British Columbia, Canada, and sea surface termperature of the Pacific Ocean. Ecological Modelling. 221:112-129.

Meyn, A., Taylor, S.W., Flannigan, M.D., Thonicke, K. and Cramer, W. 2010. Relationship between fire, climate oscillations, and drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920-2000. Global Change Biology. 16:977-989. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02061.x.

Le Goff, H., Flannigan, M.  and Bergeron, Y. 2009. Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 39:2369-2380.

Flannigan, M.D., Krawchuk, M.A., de Groot, W.J., Wotton, B.M. and Gowman, L.M. 2009. Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 18:483-507.

Jiang, Y., Zhuang, Q., Flannigan, M. and J. Little 2009. Characterization of wildfire regimes in Canadian boreal terrestrial ecosystems. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 18:992-1002.

Spacklen, D.V., Mickley, L.J., Logan, J.A., Hudman, R.C., Yevich, R., Flannigan, M.D. and Westerling, A.L. 2009. Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research.  114, D20301, doi:10.1029/2008JD010966.

Carvalho, A., Flannigan, M.D., Logan, K.A., Gowman, L.M.,  Miranda, A.I.  and C. Borrego. 2009. The impact of spatial resolution on area burned and fire occurrence projections in Portugal under climate change. Climatic Change. 98:177-197. DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9667-2.

Balshi, M.S., McGuire, A.D., Duffy, P., Flannigan, M., Kicklighter, D.W., and Melillo, J. 2009. Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st Century. Global Change Biology. 15:1491-1510.  doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01877.x.

Amiro, B.D., Cantin, A., Flannigan, M.D. and de Groot, W. 2009. Future Emissions from Canadian Boreal Forest Fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 39:383-395.

Cary, G., Flannigan, M., Keane, R., Bradstock, R., Davies, I., Li, C., Lenihan, J., Logan, K., and Parsons, R. 2009. Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: Evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 18:147-156.

Drever, C.R., Bergeron Y., Drever, M.C., Flannigan, M., Logan,T.  and Messier, C. 2009. Effects of climate on occurrence and size of large fires in a northern hardwood landscape: historical trends, future predictions, and implications for climate change in  Témiscamingue,  Québec.  Applied Vegetation Science.  DOI: 10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01035.x.

Balshi, M.S., McGuire, A.D., Duffy, P., Flannigan, M., Walsh, J., and Melillo, J. 2009. Modeling historical and future area burned of western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology. 15: 578-600. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01679.x.

Flannigan, M.D., Stocks, B.J., Turetsky, M.R. and Wotton, B.M. 2009. Impact of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest. Global Change Biology. 15:549-560. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01660.x.

Recent Book Chapters
de Groot, W.J. and Flannigan, M.D. 2014. Climate change and early warning systems for wildland fire. Chapter 7. Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems and Climate Change. Edited by Z. Zommers and A. Singh. Springer. pp. 127-151.

de Groot, W.J., Wotton, B.M. and Flannigan, M.D. 2014. Wildland Fire Danger Rating and Early Warning Systems. Wildfire, Hazards, Risks, and Disasters. D. Paton. Elsevier. pp. 207-228.

Paton, D., Buergelt, P.T., and Flannigan, M.D. 2014. Ensuring that we can see the wood and the Trees: Growing the Capacity for Ecological Wildfire Risk Management. Wildfire, Hazards, Risks, and Disasters. D. Paton. Elsevier. pp. 247-262.

Flannigan, M.D., Gowman, L.M., Wotton, B.M. Krawchuk, M.A., de Groot, W.J. and Stocks, B.J. 2013. Modelling future wildland fire in the Circumboreal. Chapter 15. Vegetation Fires and Climate Change. Edited By J.G. Goldammer. Kessel Publishing House pp. 209-224.

Stocks, B.J. and Flannigan, M.D. 2013. Current fire regimes, impacts and likely changes: Past, Current and Future Boreal Fire Activity in Canada. Chapter 4. Vegetation Fires and Climate Change. Edited By J.G. Goldammer. Kessel Publishing House pp. 39-50.

Keane, R.E., G. Cary, and M. Flannigan. 2010. Challenges and needs in fire management: A landscape simulation modeling perspective. Book Chapter. Pages 77-89 In: Li, Chao, R Lafortezza, and J. Chen (editors) Landscape ecology in forest management and conservation: Challenges and solutions for global change. Springer, Higher Education Press, Beijing, China ISBN: 978-7-04-029136-0.

Soung Ryoul Ryu (English Editor), Joohoon Lim, Younggeun Lee, Jinhyun Jeong, and Myung Bo Lee (Korean Editors), Post Fire Restoration – to establish a healthy and sustainable forest ecosystem, Oct 30 2010, 60pp, Natural Record No. 11-1400377-000393-01.

Le Goff, H., Flannigan,  M., Bergeron, Y., Leduc, A., Gauthier. S. and K. Logan. 2009. Management solutions to face climate change, the example of forest fires. In Ecosystem Management in the boreal forest, S. Gauthier, M-A Vaillancourt, A. Leduc, L. De Grandpré, D. Kneeshaw, H. Morin, P. Drapeau and Y. Bergeron (Eds). Presses de l’Université du Québec,  pp.103-127.

Girardin, M., Flannigan, M., Tardif, J. and Y. Bergeron. 2009. Climate, weather and forest fire. In, Ecosystem Management in the boreal forest, S. Gauthier, M-A Vaillancourt, A. Leduc, L. De Grandpré, D. Kneeshaw, H. Morin, P. Drapeau and Y. Bergeron (Eds). Presses de l’Université du Québec, pp. 79-102.

Krezek-Hanes, C.C., Flannigan, M.D. and Cantin A. 2010.  Trends in large fires in Canada, 1959-2007. Canadian biodiversity: ecosystem status and trends 2010. Technical Thematic Report. No. 6.

Blouin, Karen. 2014. Lightning prediction models for the province of Alberta, Canada. University of Alberta. 132 pp. Download PDF

Chen, Yingxiu. 2013. Retrieving surface peat moisture in an Albertan bog with Radarsat-2. University of Alberta. 85 pp. Download PDF

Hwang, Hyejin. 2013. Using Fire To Trigger Cone Opening In Aerial Seedbanks In Healthy or Recently Dead Jack Pine Stands. University of Alberta. 70 pp. Download PDF

Schiks, Thomas J. 2013. Fuel moisture and sustained flaming in masticated fuelbeds. University of Toronto. 103 pp.

Strategic Directions

There are four strategic directions: education, science, scientific applications and communications, and partnerships and collaboration. The theme of excellence threads through these strategic directions to ensure the development of science informed policies, practices and decision support tools.  Teaching and mentoring the next generation of scientists and practitioners will allow Canada to maintain its position as a world leader in fire management.