Centre for International Business Studies

2003 Eldon D. Foote Lecture in International Business

On the 2003 Foote Lecturer:

Dr. Gary Hufbauer is the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC., a position he held between 1992 and 1997, and then since 1999. Before rejoining, he served as the Maurice R. Greenberg Chair and Director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York from June 1997 until September 1998. Dr. Hufbauer also held the post of Marcus Wallenberg Professor of International Financial Diplomacy at Georgetown University. From 1977-1980, Mr. Hufbauer served in the U.S. Treasury Department as Deputy Assistant Secretary, where he was responsible for trade and investment policy during the Tokyo Round and served as the Director of the International Tax Staff.

Gary Hufbauer holds an A.B from Harvard College, a Ph.D. in economics from King College at Cambridge University — and a J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center.

His publications include World Capital Markets (co-author, 2001), NAFTA and the Environment (co-author, 2000), Unfinished Business: Telecommunications after the Uruguay Round (co-editor, 1997), Flying High: Liberalizing Civil Aviation in the Asian Pacific (co-editor, 1996), Fundamental Tax Reform and Border Tax Adjustments (1996), Western Hemisphere Economic Integration (co-author, 1994), NAFTA: An Assessment (co-author, 1994), and Economic Sanctions Reconsidered (co-author, 1990).

Lecture Abstract:

Following the failure at Cancún, it seems all but certain that Doha negotiations will stretch into 2007, when U.S. Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) ultimately  expires. The high likelihood that the Doha Round does not achieve any hard  steps (e.g. significantly liberalizing agriculture, industrial tariffs and services, and providing meaningful special and differential treatment) does not mean that trade ministers will at some point declare a  failure and go home. The stakes for the ministerial careers are too great not to declare a “success,” no matter how shallow!  But a shallow outcome will essentially mark the end of the WTO’s 50-year run as the lead engine of commercial liberalization. Instead, liberalization will increasingly become the province of FTAs. The European Union and the United States will continue to offer agreements to small and mid-sized countries that are economically and politically attractive. Common borders, common language, ethnic heritage, governance, and foreign policy will all play their role in choosing partners. Some partners will succeed in negotiating FTAs with both the European Union and the United States (e.g., Israel, Chile).  Big questions revolve around the ways Japan, China, India and Russia choose to play the FTA game. Will there be a China-Japan-Korea FTA? Will each Asian power form its own network? Will Russia negotiate a special arrangement with the European Union? What will be the foreign policy consequences of competing hubs?  The fact that these questions are both big and troublesome does not, in my view, alter the forecast that regional and bilateral FTAs will take the lead on trade and  investment liberalization at least for the next decade.

Lecture Transcript: click here