The Record
WATERLOO (Jan 10, 2007)
Some countries want to slay the dragon.
Others try to ignore the dragon.
Most want to lure the dragon.
Wenran Jiang thinks Canada should dance with the dragon.
The dragon is China, the fastest-growing economic power on the planet with a voracious appetite for new supplies of energy, trade and technology.
Ignore China at your peril, warns Jiang, because the Asian powerhouse has much to offer for any country looking for new markets and sources of trade, investments and economic goods.
Canada, under the Conservatives of Stephen Harper, so far seems to have adopted a strategy of "ignoring the dragon," Jiang, acting director of the China Institute at the University of Alberta, said yesterday in a speech at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.
While many countries in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East are openly courting Chinese investment, Jiang believes Canada should adopt a more equitable and open-minded strategy of "dancing with the dragon."
Jiang, who is also an associate professor of political science at the University of Alberta, said many Canadians view China as a thirsty monster drooling over our huge energy reserves in the Alberta oilsands.
Yet in reality, only two small deals worth $150 million each have been signed with China to develop Alberta oil, he said.
Fears of a Chinese takeover of the Canadian energy sector are all a bunch of "hype," he said. "The numbers just don't add up."
China, which became an energy importer in 1993, has signed much larger and more lucrative energy deals with countries like Iran and Australia, Jiang noted. He described Canada's energy relations with China as "much talk and little action."
This could backfire if Canada is hoping to find markets for our growing technology sector and even sources of labour for booming Alberta, he said.
Jiang said China's thirst for energy is growing by leaps and bounds and shows no signs of abating. He predicted the Chinese economy will triple in size by 2020.
At present, China consumes about seven million barrels of oil a day, still well short of the U.S.'s 25-million-a-day habit. If China were to consume at the same rate as the U.S., it would need 80 million barrels a day, he said.
China is still heavily dependent on coal, which fills 69 per cent of its energy needs. Oil is second at 27 per cent, with natural gas a distant third at 2.8 per cent.
Meanwhile, oil accounts for 37 per cent of world energy consumption, coal 26 per cent and natural gas 23 per cent, Jiang said.
China's aim is to secure more supplies of energy wherever it can, but to pursue alternative sources as well, including nuclear, wind and liquid natural gas, he said.
In the environmental category, China is home to 16 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world. The country uses a lot of heavy industry and is becoming "the factory of the world," he said.
But China is making some strides to curb pollution. Its auto-emission standards are tougher than those in the U.S., he noted.
One reason for that is the authoritarian nature of the political system. The government can just say "do it" and it is done, Jiang said.
chowitt@therecord.com