China is job No.1 for Japanese PM

The Global and Mail BEIJING -- Japan's hawkish new Prime Minister, who took power yesterday, faces an uphill battle as he seeks rapprochement with China and South Korea while still pushing

29 September 2006


The Global and Mail


BEIJING -- Japan's hawkish new Prime Minister, who took power yesterday, faces an uphill battle as he seeks rapprochement with China and South Korea while still pushing his policies of patriotic education and national assertiveness.

Shinzo Abe, the tough-talking politician who soared to popularity by bashing North Korea and promising to upgrade the military, became Prime Minister by winning a majority of votes in both houses of parliament less than a week after taking over the leadership of the governing Liberal Democratic Party.

The 52-year-old scion of a famed political family, who becomes the youngest Japanese leader since the Second World War, appointed a cabinet that was dominated by like-minded conservatives, especially in the defence and foreign ministries.

Mr. Abe wants to engineer a diplomatic coup by holding summits with the leaders of China and South Korea in the next few weeks. Some analysts say he could be trying a Nixon-in-China strategy -- similar to the historic 1972 visit to China by former U.S. president Richard Nixon, when a right-wing leader was able to make diplomatic concessions because his conservative image helped shield him from criticism.

If all goes smoothly, Mr. Abe could meet the leaders of China and South Korea on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation group in Hanoi in November. But while both countries have been willing to listen to the Japanese proposal, they remain cautious.

Diplomatic negotiations are under way to prepare for possible summits, but the talks are proceeding slowly because China wants Mr. Abe to promise to stop visiting the Yasukuni shrine, where convicted war criminals are among those honoured. He visited the shrine last April, but hasn't said whether he will do so in the future.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Qin Gang, made it clear that China expects concessions from Mr. Abe on the issue.

"At present, there are obstacles to bilateral ties," Mr. Qin said. "The reasons are quite clear and the Japanese government is aware of them."

Mr. Abe's Foreign Minister, Taro Aso, confirmed that the new leader is seeking a summit with the Chinese President.

"We will make efforts to achieve summit talks between the new Prime Minister and Chinese President Hu Jintao," he said yesterday. "We are ready to meet any time."

Mr. Aso met the Chinese foreign vice-minister in Tokyo on Monday, but both sides said very little about any progress, aside from a vague statement that Sino-Japanese relations are "at an important period."

Mr. Abe, for his part, said he will "work to further develop relations between Japan and China," although he made no mention of the Yasukuni dispute or other crucial issues. He also promised an "assertive diplomacy" in the future, apparently to bolster Japan's influence in Asia and beyond.

China and South Korea refused to hold a summit meeting with former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi because of his regular visits to the shrine after he took office in 2001.

Mr. Abe's conservative policies -- especially his plan to scrap the pacifist clause of Japan's constitution, and his enthusiasm for "patriotic education" for schoolchildren -- are a major source of concern for Beijing and Seoul.

Still, by refusing to say whether he will visit Yasukuni in future, and by pledging to seek better relations with China and South Korea, he might be able to confound his critics and achieve a breakthrough.

Sino-Japanese relations plunged to new depths last year when tens of thousands of Chinese protesters marched in the streets to denounce Japan, while naval vessels from the two countries came close to clashing in the East China Sea.

Analysts predict that Mr. Abe could boost his popularity and his prospects in next year's elections if he finds a way to reduce the political tensions that have plagued China-Japan relations in recent years. Polls show that most Japanese would prefer to have good relations with China, since their economic connections have rapidly expanded recently.

"There are clear gains for Abe if he gets a quick summit with Hu Jintao," said Wenran Jiang, a University of Alberta professor who specializes in China-Japan relations. "He can demonstrate that he can manage relations with the two countries [China and South Korea] better than Koizumi. And it would create a positive international image for the new leader if he is capable of dealing with foreign-policy issues."