Prime Minister Trudeau's Visit to China and The Future of Canada-China Relations

Phil Calvert - 30 November 2017

Phil Calvert on the importance of Canada forging closer ties with China and how the Canadian government should proceed to 'get China right'?

Justin Trudeau's next visit to China will be in different global circumstances than were at play during the back-to-back reciprocal visits he undertook with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in the autumn of 2016. The Trump administration is promoting a protectionist agenda, U.S. global influence appears diminished, and Canada's trade relations with the United States face increased challenges, especially with NAFTA under threat. China's President has articulated an ambitious global agenda, promoting innovation, climate change, and globalism (despite significant domestic challenges and obstacles), as well as presenting China's model of authoritarian government and state-influenced market economics as an alternative model to western liberal democracy. In this context, strengthening Canada's ties with China becomes even more important, both to support increased diversification in our international markets, and to maintain our ability to advocate with China on global issues of importance to Canada.

Recognizing and adjusting to the importance of China for Canada requires a significant shift of mentality in Ottawa. Canada needs to start treating China as a major relationship to be managed and nurtured consistently at senior levels, not simply around high-level visits. Contact between the Prime Minister and the President should be sustained and regular as global challenges emerge. Canada and China will not always agree on the solutions to these challenges, but China as a global player needs to be part of the discussion, and to be encouraged to be part of the solution.

Effective management of the China relationship requires leadership and a long-term vision for all of Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau should lead a pan-Canadian process, including First Ministers, business leaders, and NGOs, to set a co-ordinated, strategic agenda implemented by provincial and federal government agencies. There will doubtless be issues of disagreement (pipelines comes to mind), but the more different levels of government can increase their co-ordination, the more effective our overall impact in China will be.

Many observers expect that formal free trade negotiations will be launched during this visit. These negotiations, if launched, will be long and challenging, and a number of issues sensitive to each side will doubtless be on the table. According to recent polls, Canadian support for free trade with China is increasing, but not overwhelming, and China's domestic system, especially its approach to regulations, lacks transparency and consistency, and contains problems that may be beyond an FTA.

There is a good argument for strengthening our economic ties with China, given its current and growing global role in international trade. Instead of launching into a standard, full-blown FTA negotiation, however, Canada could propose an economic partnership agreement, which could serve as a framework for productive engagement on bilateral issues and systemic obstacles, as well as on international issues such as fighting protectionism. Such a framework would help build mutual confidence and knowledge, and could serve as a platform for moving to free trade, perhaps starting with more limited sectoral agreements. It would be a way of locking in wins, for both sides, early, rather than at the end of a long negotiation, while avoiding the heightened controversy of an FTA. It could also be used to strengthen dialogue on regulatory issues and related non-tariff barriers, serving as a constructive way to address systemic challenges of concern to Canadian business.

Strengthening the Canada-China relationship also requires a long-term investment in education linkages. Canada should strengthen its federal and scholarship programs in order to attract emerging leaders from China. Such ties can be instrumental in Canadian successes in the future. Canada also needs significant investment in scholarship programs to send Canadian students to China. This is crucial in developing a corps of future leaders who can apply their China language skills and understanding of the country to business, government, academia, and other endeavours.

We also need to do more to build and make use of China competence in Canada. Scholarships are part of the solution, but not all of it. School curricula need better to reflect our interest in China and Asia, particularly as an increasing number of our students have their roots in that region. More active recruitment of China expertise by governments and companies would help increase this capacity, as would regular exchanges of China experts between the government and the private sector.

Governments have tended to approach China with varying degrees of enthusiasm or skepticism. Both are important. There will be areas where Canada and China share a common agenda, and areas where our different values and priorities may lead to disagreement, especially in such areas as human rights. Maintaining a balanced approach will help Canada benefit from ties with this complex and challenging country.

Read the full China Research Partnership interview