Reciprocating Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to India last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi conducted a three-day visit to China between May 14 and 16, fulfilling his promise to do so within one year of assuming office.
Prime Minister Modi was attended by President Xi in Xi'an, apparently the first time that a top foreign leader was welcomed in the hometown of the Chinese President. According to Xinhua, the decision to forgo normal diplomatic protocol to welcome him outside Beijing was a "carefully orchestrated choice." This dynamic parallels the similar treatment provided to Xi during his India visit in last December, when Modi opted to receive Xi in his home state of Gujarat rather than in New Delhi.
While one Indian observer expressed the belief that the break in protocol was a condescending slight by the Chinese, it is more probable that the deliberate parallel simply reflects the two countries' mutual desire to establish a closer relationship by emphasizing their mutual cultural ties, as well as the budding personal relationship of the two leaders. In Xi'an, Xi accompanied Modi to the Wild Goose Pagoda, where Buddhist texts and relics gathered by Xuan Zang, a Chinese traveller and monk who embarked on a 17-year pilgrimage to India and enriched Buddhism in China, are stored. Xi'an, thus, is a symbolic site for China-India relations, while the pagoda itself symbolizes the early ties between the two cultures. Fittingly, this outlook contrasts with some recent developments in the relationship, which has been marred at times by geopolitical tensions. While wholly symbolic, the two leaders have communicated similar intentions by appealing to the historical and cultural links between the countries, which could be taken as a promising sign for the future direction of China-India relations.
Modi, expressing the view that there was "no question of going back," asserted that "standing still was not an option" and that "moving forward is the only way out" in the China-India relationship, which has been "complex" in the last few decades. This declaration signals a more assertive stance characteristic of Modi's general foreign policy approach, in comparison with his predecessor Manmohan Singh, who during his tenure was criticized for being passive and overly conciliatory.
Overall, the visit can be said to provide small steps of progress for the China-India relationship. Although Modi was criticized for failing to adequately advance Indian concerns regarding its border dispute with China, his visit appears to have oriented more prominently on economic and development issues, reflecting a welcome pragmatic focus.
Trade and Investment Deals Signed
The theme throughout Modi's visit was trade and attracting greater investment to India, key elements of the election manifesto of his Bharatiya Janata Party, and undoubtedly influenced by his previous visits as Chief Minister of Gujarat to China to learn about the country's economic development.
Following his meeting with Xi, Modi departed for Beijing, where, after a ceremonial welcome at the Great Hall of the People, he held talks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on May 15. In total, twenty-four intergovernmental MOUs and twenty-six business agreements between Chinese and Indian firms worth US$22 billion were signed. The majority of these agreements were focused on infrastructure, education, and technological development, including a US$2.5 billion financing from the China Development Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to Bharti Airtel, an Indian telecommunications giant. These investments are intended, from the Indian perspective, to enhance employment opportunities and technical efficiency in India in the future, and from the Chinese side to entrench China as a preferred economic partner to India.
Prior to the visit, infrastructure was specifically identified as an area of economic cooperation between the countries, given China's relative strength and India's deficits in the sector. This complementarity has been broadly recognized, but as a recent editorial in China's Global Times shows, concerns remain about whether India's domestic environment is appropriate for attracting investors.
In the last part of his visit, Modi visited Shanghai where he met the Indian-China Business Forum. Modi has focused on his "Make in India" campaign throughout his foreign visits, which aims to enhance foreign direct or institutional investment in India. Meeting the CEOs of top Chinese companies including Alibaba and Xiaomi, he indicated, "We have committed ourselves for creating and improving the business environment. I can assure you that once you decide to be in India, we are confident to make you more and more comfortable."
It will be important to see if the much needed but still modest steps represented by the agreements will lead to further investment in India and progress on resolving its trade deficit with China, which stood at approximately US$38 billion in 2014.
Practicing People-to-People Diplomacy
In his approach to domestic politics, Modi has established a significant social media presence to his advantage, and he has routinely engaged in this form of digital diplomacy, as well. During his visit, Modi connected with Chinese netizens via Weibo, the Twitter-like social networking site popular in China, garnering over 150,000 followers by his departure. His use of social media, which involved a widely shared selfie with Premier Li, contrasted the conduct of most political leaders in China, where "spontaneous online displays are rare" and leaders have little or no social media presence.
Modi's eager embrace of Weibo speaks to another important concern expressed during the visit, regarding the need to improve cultural and people-to-people relationships between India and China. Under Modi's leadership, commentators have argued that India's foreign affairs strategy has sought to leverage the country's "soft power potential" through digital diplomacy, the Indian diaspora, and India's cultural and religious influence. Thus, it is unsurprising that the Prime Minister has also deployed these instruments during his time in China, by promoting tourism and Indian cultural studies, in addition to his use of social media. It is notable that "people-to-people bonds" are defined as one of the five cooperation priorities of the Chinese Silk "Belt and Road Initiative" first defined in March 2015; however, India has yet to commit to this initiative. China's US$46 billion investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, related to the Initiative, has contributed to recent tensions. The Corridor's route through Pakistan-administered Kashmir and the paucity of political discussion with India, specifically, have been causes of concern on the Indian side.
Speaking to students of Tsinghua University in Beijing, Modi announced that India would grant "E-Visas" to Chinese tourists to facilitate greater travel and encouraged students to visit India so that the nations can achieve a better mutual cultural understanding. Noting that one-third of the world is "either Indian or Chinese," he lamented that "we know so little about each other." In 2014, the number of Chinese visitors to India numbered approximately 200,000, a figure that is poised to grow over the next several years.
On May 16, Prime Minister Modi inaugurated the Centre for Gandhian and Indian Studies at Fudan University, which will help Chinese students to understand Indian culture and enhance the China-India academic relationship. Modi reiterated the motif of the common civilizational ties between the countries and said that they should work for the elimination of poverty. Invoking the "humanity and philosophy of Lord Buddha and experiments of Mahatma Gandhi," he argued that India and China should "give to the world a system, which is dedicated to welfare of humanity."
Even though both countries share a border, their respective populations know very little about each other, a factor that commentators have identified as contributing to the underdeveloped economic relationship. Other agreements such as India's national broadcaster Doordarshan and CCTV's MOU on cooperation in broadcasting, the Indian Ministry of Tourism and the China National Tourism Administration's agreement to cooperate on promoting tourism, and the decision to open consulates in Chengdu and Chennai will serve to address this problem.
Lingering Mistrust on Security Issues
Despite the hopes of some that the border dispute between the two countries would be resolved, it does not appear that the issue achieved any significant progress from the visit. According to a media briefing, the leaders discussed the need for mutual trust and "peace and tranquility" at the boundary, cooperation on tackling terrorism, and coordinating relief for Nepalese earthquake victims.
India and China have adopted much more modest measures aimed to diffuse tensions along the border, an issue that has remained a geopolitical obstacle to the further development of relations. Some arrangements arising from the visit are promising in this respect, serving to build on existing mechanisms which Modi said were "helpful". PM Modi and Premier Li agreed that the countries should work toward resolving the border dispute and should increase the number of border meeting points of their military personnel from the existing four. Furthermore, the countries agreed to establish a military hotline between the commanders on each side of the border, a move that was first considered as part of the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement in 2013.
The visit arguably revealed some persisting points of friction, as well. In its initial coverage of the visit, CCTV had broadcasted a map of India without Jammu-Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh, two Indian states, generating acrimony on social media and criticism from Shiv Sena, a right-wing political party. More significantly, China did not secure India's participation in its Silk Road initiative, which was reportedly one of its priorities. Beijing has not yet demonstrated to India's satisfaction that such projects would be sufficiently beneficial to India, or at the very least that those benefits outweigh its geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, China refused to reciprocate India's e-visa facility, maintaining its stapled visa policy for residents of Arunachal Pradesh, which has been an irritant in cross-border relations.
China's support for construction projects in Pakistan-administered Kashmir is a further area of grievance, along with broader regional and international geopolitical concerns. Another noteworthy parallel between the Xi and Modi visits is that they both occurred in the context of other, regional state visits; prior to arriving in India in 2014, Xi travelled to Tajikistan, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka, while Modi followed his trip with visits to Mongolia and South Korea. These observations underscore the fact that an underlying rivalry lingers in the relationship, even as both sides seek to benefit from greater economic integration.
Diplomacy Through the Old and New
Prime Minister Modi's visit to China drew on elements of the old-Indian cultural traditions and historical China-India ties-even as it sought to expand the political and economic relationship on the basis of present needs such as infrastructure and technological development. This approach serves as an acknowledgement that, in light of the more recent history between China and India, progress in this relationship can only be made slowly and tentatively for now. It is perhaps fortunate, then, that both Xi and Modi have employed a pragmatic attitude toward these issues, which is potentially conducive to developing closer personal ties between the leaders.
Reaction in China's state media has largely been positive, with editorials in Xinhua and China Daily expressing support for warmer ties with India. However, other opinion pieces published ahead of the visit varied in their predictions for the summit's success, including a critical piece that emphasized the lack of "real strategic trust". Indian media appreciated Modi's achievements on the economic front. In an opinion published in The Hindu before the visit, trade, mutual trust and border issues were identified as important points of development; these were all covered by Modi.
It has been suggested that Modi's "Nixonian pragmatism" might contribute to an acceleration or breakthrough in relations. Yet, as the small but promising steps of the visit have shown, only time will tell whether a successful redirection of India's relationship with China is in the making.