Recidivism rates among Alberta's NCR population - accused individuals found Not Criminally Responsible due to a Mental Disorder - are extremely low compared to the general criminal population.
That's one of the central findings of a study published in October in the Journal of Community Safety & Well Being by Dr. Andrew Haag, Assistant Clinical Professor in the Department of Psychiatry and Sessional Instructor in the Department of Psychology at the University of Alberta, and two student researchers.
The recidivism study, which followed a total of 528 cases, expands on the findings of a landmark longitudinal NCR study Dr. Haag published in the same journal in 2016 along with two student researchers.
The 2016 study tracked the trajectory of some 560 individuals in Alberta who were found NCR (or as it was previously known, insane) dating as far back as 1941, when the earliest recorded case in the province occurred.
The Alberta NCR Project, as it's known, is believed to be the most comprehensive long-term study of the NCR population ever conducted in Canada. The recidivism study builds on Dr. Haag's earlier work.
"This is a profoundly understudied group. There have only been a couple of really large-scale studies of the NCR population in Canada or even worldwide. So we undertook the monumental task of identifying and tracking every single person who was ever found insane or NCR in Alberta's history - not just a cohort, but the entire population - and I'm confident we've done that," says Dr. Haag.
The authors examined the records of everyone in Alberta who was found to be NCR since 1941, what their diagnoses were, how long they were classified as NCR, and relevant details of their family backgrounds and other sociodemographic data. A key focus of the study was to assess the risks posed by the NCR population to public safety.
"In Canada, public safety is a paramount concern for the provincial Review Boards that oversee individuals found to be NCR. (Despite this) there is limited research on recidivism rates for NCR populations to assist public policy and institutional practices," the authors state.
Dr. Haag's research assistants for the follow-up study included Kayla Richer, a Master of Science student in the Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine at the University of Alberta, and Jeremy Cheng, a Clinical Psychology PhD Student at the University of Saskatchewan.
"In response to this gap (in the data), the authors examined the recidivism characteristics of the population of NCR individuals who have passed under the Review Board of Alberta. The maximum follow-up period was 35 years and included 528 cases between October 1941 and December 2015," they wrote.
For various reasons, a small number of cases were excluded from the recidivism study. Some individuals died prior to any supervised release, some had never had an unsupervised release, and some transferred out of province. In instances where individuals died or were deported after release, their cases were included until the applicable date, and then excluded.
"Results indicated that the overall general recidivism rate of NCR individuals was 19.7%" over 35 years, the researchers found. "To put this in context, the NCR recidivism rate of just 19.7% is an exceedingly low number. For the general criminal population, it's not unusual to see recidivism rates of 20% within just a few months' time," says Dr. Haag.
Of the total number of convictions for subsequent crimes, 4.6% related to a "major" violent conviction, 12.6% stemmed from a less serious violent offence, and just 0.75% - or four cases out of 528 - related to a conviction for a sexual offence, the authors found.
"What we can say, after looking at all of the NCR data, is that this is one part of the criminal justice system that is not broken. We will not release people when it is deemed unsafe for the community. We just won't."
The standard set out by the Criminal Code is that a person is to remain under the Alberta Review Board until such time that they are deemed to no longer pose a significant threat to the public. The evidence collected in this study suggests that the Alberta Review Board has taken this duty of public safety seriously, says Dr. Haag.
The presence of a mood or psychotic disorder resulted in a slightly lower likelihood for recidivism among the NCR population, whereas those with longer criminal histories were more likely to reoffend.
"Most recidivism studies follow people for up to five years, and that is generally considered to be pretty good data. We followed people for up to 35 years, so I'm pretty confident in our data," says Dr. Haag, who also serves as a Forensic Psychologist at Alberta Hospital Edmonton with Alberta Health Services.
Data was collected from CPIC (Canadian Police Information Centre) records and patient files. CPIC records were collected from the RCMP in December 2015 and coded for the date and type of conviction across four categories: sexual, major violent, violent, and general.
Sexual offenses involved any crime of a sexual nature, such as sexual assault, sexual harassment, sexual indecency. Major violent offenses included assault causing bodily harm, aggravated assault, assault with a weapon, homicide, and attempted homicide.
Violent offenses included sexual violence and robbery. General offenses included a conviction for any crime. Of the total of 528 cases, 84% were male and 16% were female, with an average age of 35.3 years when the NCR verdict was issued.
Dr. Haag and his research team also assessed the relative prevalence of particular diagnoses among NCR patients found to have psychotic disorders, mood disorders, substance use disorders or antisocial personality disorders.
"Psychotic disorders or at least some disorder where psychosis was present, was found in about 75.6% of the cases. Mood disorders were present about 29% of the time, so those would be the two most common disorders we found. Some individuals had overlapping disorders, which is why the percentage figures don't add up to a hundred."
Dr. Haag stresses that the number of persons found NCR in Alberta in any given year is tiny - typically numbering between 10 and 20 cases annually. That compares with some 50,000 or more cases that are dealt with by the provincial justice system each year.
"The rate across Canada tends to be about seven to nine people who are found to be NCR out of every 10,000 individuals, so this is an exceedingly rare finding in the criminal justice system," he notes.
Roughly half of all individuals who are designated NCR by the courts had no prior exposure to the criminal justice system. About 7% were classified as "frequent users" of the justice system - defined as having had 10 or more sentencing dates before a judge previously.
"The other thing I found really striking with the NCR population was their level of educational achievement. The overwhelming majority - about 70% - have less than a grade 12 education. That points to a tremendous basic need in this population," he says.
"Why they didn't make it to grade 12 is usually for a whole host of reasons. It's not unusual for these individuals to have incredibly disjointed childhoods, fragmented families and some mental illness in the family. All of these things can be potential barriers to completing school."
That's one of the central findings of a study published in October in the Journal of Community Safety & Well Being by Dr. Andrew Haag, Assistant Clinical Professor in the Department of Psychiatry and Sessional Instructor in the Department of Psychology at the University of Alberta, and two student researchers.
The recidivism study, which followed a total of 528 cases, expands on the findings of a landmark longitudinal NCR study Dr. Haag published in the same journal in 2016 along with two student researchers.
The 2016 study tracked the trajectory of some 560 individuals in Alberta who were found NCR (or as it was previously known, insane) dating as far back as 1941, when the earliest recorded case in the province occurred.
The Alberta NCR Project, as it's known, is believed to be the most comprehensive long-term study of the NCR population ever conducted in Canada. The recidivism study builds on Dr. Haag's earlier work.
"This is a profoundly understudied group. There have only been a couple of really large-scale studies of the NCR population in Canada or even worldwide. So we undertook the monumental task of identifying and tracking every single person who was ever found insane or NCR in Alberta's history - not just a cohort, but the entire population - and I'm confident we've done that," says Dr. Haag.
The authors examined the records of everyone in Alberta who was found to be NCR since 1941, what their diagnoses were, how long they were classified as NCR, and relevant details of their family backgrounds and other sociodemographic data. A key focus of the study was to assess the risks posed by the NCR population to public safety.
"In Canada, public safety is a paramount concern for the provincial Review Boards that oversee individuals found to be NCR. (Despite this) there is limited research on recidivism rates for NCR populations to assist public policy and institutional practices," the authors state.
Dr. Haag's research assistants for the follow-up study included Kayla Richer, a Master of Science student in the Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine at the University of Alberta, and Jeremy Cheng, a Clinical Psychology PhD Student at the University of Saskatchewan.
"In response to this gap (in the data), the authors examined the recidivism characteristics of the population of NCR individuals who have passed under the Review Board of Alberta. The maximum follow-up period was 35 years and included 528 cases between October 1941 and December 2015," they wrote.
For various reasons, a small number of cases were excluded from the recidivism study. Some individuals died prior to any supervised release, some had never had an unsupervised release, and some transferred out of province. In instances where individuals died or were deported after release, their cases were included until the applicable date, and then excluded.
"Results indicated that the overall general recidivism rate of NCR individuals was 19.7%" over 35 years, the researchers found. "To put this in context, the NCR recidivism rate of just 19.7% is an exceedingly low number. For the general criminal population, it's not unusual to see recidivism rates of 20% within just a few months' time," says Dr. Haag.
Of the total number of convictions for subsequent crimes, 4.6% related to a "major" violent conviction, 12.6% stemmed from a less serious violent offence, and just 0.75% - or four cases out of 528 - related to a conviction for a sexual offence, the authors found.
"What we can say, after looking at all of the NCR data, is that this is one part of the criminal justice system that is not broken. We will not release people when it is deemed unsafe for the community. We just won't."
The standard set out by the Criminal Code is that a person is to remain under the Alberta Review Board until such time that they are deemed to no longer pose a significant threat to the public. The evidence collected in this study suggests that the Alberta Review Board has taken this duty of public safety seriously, says Dr. Haag.
The presence of a mood or psychotic disorder resulted in a slightly lower likelihood for recidivism among the NCR population, whereas those with longer criminal histories were more likely to reoffend.
"Most recidivism studies follow people for up to five years, and that is generally considered to be pretty good data. We followed people for up to 35 years, so I'm pretty confident in our data," says Dr. Haag, who also serves as a Forensic Psychologist at Alberta Hospital Edmonton with Alberta Health Services.
Data was collected from CPIC (Canadian Police Information Centre) records and patient files. CPIC records were collected from the RCMP in December 2015 and coded for the date and type of conviction across four categories: sexual, major violent, violent, and general.
Sexual offenses involved any crime of a sexual nature, such as sexual assault, sexual harassment, sexual indecency. Major violent offenses included assault causing bodily harm, aggravated assault, assault with a weapon, homicide, and attempted homicide.
Violent offenses included sexual violence and robbery. General offenses included a conviction for any crime. Of the total of 528 cases, 84% were male and 16% were female, with an average age of 35.3 years when the NCR verdict was issued.
Dr. Haag and his research team also assessed the relative prevalence of particular diagnoses among NCR patients found to have psychotic disorders, mood disorders, substance use disorders or antisocial personality disorders.
"Psychotic disorders or at least some disorder where psychosis was present, was found in about 75.6% of the cases. Mood disorders were present about 29% of the time, so those would be the two most common disorders we found. Some individuals had overlapping disorders, which is why the percentage figures don't add up to a hundred."
Dr. Haag stresses that the number of persons found NCR in Alberta in any given year is tiny - typically numbering between 10 and 20 cases annually. That compares with some 50,000 or more cases that are dealt with by the provincial justice system each year.
"The rate across Canada tends to be about seven to nine people who are found to be NCR out of every 10,000 individuals, so this is an exceedingly rare finding in the criminal justice system," he notes.
Roughly half of all individuals who are designated NCR by the courts had no prior exposure to the criminal justice system. About 7% were classified as "frequent users" of the justice system - defined as having had 10 or more sentencing dates before a judge previously.
"The other thing I found really striking with the NCR population was their level of educational achievement. The overwhelming majority - about 70% - have less than a grade 12 education. That points to a tremendous basic need in this population," he says.
"Why they didn't make it to grade 12 is usually for a whole host of reasons. It's not unusual for these individuals to have incredibly disjointed childhoods, fragmented families and some mental illness in the family. All of these things can be potential barriers to completing school."