Tampering with a System vs.
System Improvement

The Funnel Experiment

Dr. Yonatan Reshef
School of Business
University of Alberta

Based on W. Edwards Deming
(The New Economics, 1994, 2nd ed., Ch. 9)

 

TAMPERING VS. IMPROVEMENT

In the Red Bead Experiment
- The process was stable
- The process was predicatble
- All the variance was due to the system
- All of the results were due to chance
- Each employee could perform above/below average at any point in time
- The process was ready for improvement

TAMPERING

Tampering (managing by results) means making harmful changes in reaction to chance events (i.e., common causes of variation).

Tampering means adding additional variation by unnecessary adjustments made in an attempt to compensate for common cause variation.

Tampering is not improvement.

Improvement of a stable process requires fundamental change in the process

Improvement means reducing a process's variation and establishing an acceptable process average

 

(Click on a rule for more information)

RULE EXPLANATION
 1 Aim the funnel at the target. Keep it so aimed throughout the experiment. (Visual)
2
 
1. At each drop, move the funnel from its last position to compensate for the last error. Measure the deviation from the point at which the marble comes to rest and the original target (i.e., the bull's eye).  Move the funnel an equal distance in the opposite direction from its current position. (Visual 1 l Visual 2)

Simply put, your reference point for adjustment is the last event.

3 Move the funnel from the original target (i.e., the bull's eye) to compensate for the last error.  Measure the deviation from the point at which the marble comes to rest and the original target (bull's eye).  Set the funnel an equal distance in the opposite direction of the error from the original target (Visual 1|Visual 2).

Simply put, your reference point for adjustment is a standard.

If the marble ended up n inches northeast of the original target (bull's eye), we position the funnel n inches of the original target (bull's eye).
4 At drop n, set the funnel right over the n-1 drop. (Visual)

For rule 2 and 3, visual 2 is taken from James R. Evans and William M. Lindsay. 2005 (6th ed.). The Management and Control of Quality. Thomson, p. 524.

Here the results of 15 drops with each set being governed by a different rule (P. 205).

Drop

Rule 1

Rule 2

Rule 3

Rule 4

Funnel Result Funnel Result Funnel Result Funnel Result

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

-3

0

-3

0

-3

0

-3

3

0

3

3

6

3

6

-3

0

4

0

2

-3

-1

-6

-4

0

2

5

0

5

-2

3

4

9

2

7

6

0

-5

-5

-10

-9

-14

7

2

7

0

2

5

7

14

16

2

4

8

0

2

-2

0

-16

-14

4

6

9

0

-2

-2

-4

14

12

6

4

10

0

1

2

3

-12

-11

4

5

11

0

-1

-1

-2

11

10

5

4

12

0

2

1

3

-10

-8

4

6

13

0

-2

-2

-4

8

6

6

4

14

0

2

2

4

-6

-4

4

6

15

0

-4

-2

-6

4

0

2

2

Take a look at this simple example of our class's start time

Download and experiment with the funnel simulation (sorry, Windows version only).

Take a look at what this simulation produces (use your browser's BACK button to return to this page).

Take a look at the effect of each tampering method on a system's variance.

A good simulator is available at http://www.symphonytech.com/dfunnel.htm


Class Assignments:

  1. Plot the 4 result columns. The target is 0.
  2. Find examples (HR, education, business, family, etc.) for each of the four rules.
  3. What are the (dis)advantages of a (un)stable system?
  4. Is a stable system = quality output?

Remember:

Tampering is action on the system without action on the fundamental cause of the trouble (p. 67).

A process may be stable (i.e., produce results within predictable limits), yet turn out faulty items and mistakes. To take action on the output of a stable process in response to production of a faulty item or a mistake is to tamper with the process. Put differently, tampering means making harmful changes in reaction to chance events. The result of tampering is only to increase in the future the production of faulty items and mistakes, and to increase costs -- exactly the opposite of what we wish to accomplish (p. 202). Thus, if anyone adjusts a stable process to try to compensate for a result that is undesirable, or a result that is extra good, the output that follows will be worse than if he had left the process alone (Out of the Crisis: 327). The reason being, tampering invariably increases variation in the results of a stable process. 

Note, specification limits are not action limits. Severe losses occur when a process is continually adjusted one way and then the other to meet specifications. Control limits must be calculated from pertinent data (pp. 178-9).

Improvement of a stable system requires fundamental change in the process (p. 202).


More on variation
(For more information, visit the TQM Dictionary; click on V for Variation)

Variation is a fact of life. It is random and miscellaneous. Thus, the same process can produce two things that are not alike. In the days of hand-crafted products, this could be accounted for by "fitting" things together. In modern industry where interchangeable parts are assembled into mass-produced final products, controlling variation is critical to customer satisfaction. This is one of the most important tasks a manager faces.

Dr. Walter Shewhart identified two kinds of variation, controlled and uncontrolled.


Controlled Variation/Stable System:

  1. stable
  2. exhibits a consistent pattern over time
  3. results of a stable process can be predicted with greater certainty
  4. a stable process can be improved because outcomes of changes can be predicted


Uncontrolled Variation/Unstable System:

  1. changes over time due to special causes
  2. cannot predict results of process
  3. process cannot be improved easily since outcomes of changes are unpredictable

Management's job is to manage (reduce and stabilize) variation in order to produce predictable results, such as quality, cost, and production schedules. Since all data contain random variation or noise, the noise must be filtered out, otherwise two kinds of mistakes could arise:

  1. Interpreting stable variation (noise) as if it were a meaningful change (signal) and expending efforts to "fix" stable/natural variation. In other words, here we ascribe a variation or a mistake to a special cause when in fact the cause belongs to the system (common causes). Overadjustment is a common example of this mistake.
  2. Interpreting uncontrolled variation (signal) as if it were noise and not recognizing when a change has taken place. Here we ascribe a variation or a mistake to the system (common causes) when in fact the cause is special. Never doing anything to try to find a special cause is a common example of this mistake.

One Last Time: Process Improvement 

Ø           A system is a collection of processes

Ø           Process improvement requires that processes be stable, or under statistical control

Ø           Statistical control - a state of random variation; it is stable in the sense that the limits of variation are predictable

Ø           Once the systems has been stabilized, special causes of variation can be dealt with

Ø           Once special causes of variation have been removed, process improvement can begin

Ø           We improve processes by investigating and removing common causes

Ø           Tampering with a system - ascribing a variation, or a mistake, to a special cause when in fact the cause belongs to the system is overadjustment. This adds variation to the system.

Ø           Ascribing a variation, or a mistake, to the system when in fact the cause is special leads to not doing anything