Joseph R. Royce Research Conference

When an eyewitness testifies about a lineup identification in court, they tend to be believed: a confident eyewitness is a believed eyewitness. Yet, in recent decades it has become apparent—both to scientists and in the popular media—that eyewitnesses sometimes make mistakes. The Canadian Registry of Wrongful Convictions reports that of the 90 exonerations that have occurred in Canada, 25 involved mistaken eyewitness identification (6/10 in Alberta). So, what of the relationship between eyewitness confidence and accuracy? Until about the mid-2000s, many eyewitness scientists believed and testified in court that confidence was a poor—or at best moderate—predictor of accuracy. Recent changes in how eyewitness confidence and accuracy are evaluated have shifted opinions and eyewitness confidence has had a new heyday. Many eyewitness experts are now testifying in court that high confidence equals high accuracy. In this talk I will discuss why this pendulum swing occurred, the conditions under which eyewitness confidence is in fact a good predictor of accuracy, why we should still be wary about eyewitness confidence in practice, and how we might improve our ability to rely on an eyewitness’ confidence as a predictor of their accuracy in practice.